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Friday, April 8, 2011

The perspectives of the EU-Atlantic integrations of Serbia

In this moment there is one thing reminding us Milošević`s times – again there is the same unanswered question – how long this endless political degradation will keep going? We can hardly talk about any long lasting strategy which would lead the country to some defined point. The only issue about which there is a certain consensus in Serbian politics is the direction towards EU. The differences in opinions are only about the tempo. Although the concept of the EU here is still more an abstract idea than a real state that could be achieved in a reasonable time, it still provides the highest political capital as around 60% of inhabitants support the integration. So even if we are far from final destination at least there is less and less chance to return back from the EU line.

NATO – why NOT?

NATO was an aggressor 12 years ago in Serbia, breaking the rules of international law, starting the bombing without the approval of UN Safety Council. It was the second major combat in its history after the Bosnian operation in 1995. It is easy to see the reason why the Serbian society has an explicit anti NATO attitude. It is also true that even after the 500 years of Turkish occupation, it is possible to make business with Turkey and welcome their capital in Serbia today. Well, then why would it be different with NATO? The only question is the time. What is necessary, it is to look at this action from a definite time distance. As the Serbian society let the chance pass, to face and accept the fact that Milošević's policy was wrong, the North-Atlantic Alliance still enjoys the reputation of an enemy. Even if already some political actors supports a closer cooperation with Partnership for Peace or requests directly the accession to NATO, according to Professor Tibor Várady - it would be a political suicide to declare open pro - NATO policy in Serbia today. After all there are two political parties: the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Serbian Renewal Movement (SPO) that openly support the NATO accession. Both of them have only marginal position in the Parliament. One of the most respected representatives of the pro NATO approach is however the Defense Minister, Dragan Šutanovac, who has just recently announced that NATO strategic conference will be held in Belgrade in the summer. Observing the reactions and comments on different news portals this event is rather considered by the public opinion as a provocation than an opportunity to fall into one line with developed countries. Simply the Serbian society cannot accept such a big turn in a relatively short time. As I mentioned for a majority of population the NATO today is rather an enemy than a future partner to follow.
Obviously as it was emphasized by Professor Várady the biggest mistake was leaving Kosovo to Milošević under the UN’s resolution. This virtual political construction became the heaviest ballast for Serbia after the war, making major impact on the process of democratization. The Kosovo issue became the biggest trouble for all the upcoming democratic governments after Milošević's removal. This status quo became a cheap fuel for national populist parties and for all those political opportunist without any concrete programs. In this environment any evaluation of the mistakes and consequences of the previous decade’s policy became impossible, as all the time the territorial integrity was threatened. Therefore any liberal approach is considered as not patriotic. Creating an “artificial” fear of the national territory loss offered enough political capital to spin the Serbian public opinion and to win elections.
Nataša Nikolić, a young lawyer, states that the anti NATO atmosphere is rather a result of the lack of information about the real benefits of an eventual accession while of course there is a space for traditional defiance as well. She thinks that while the NATO accession issue might be so problematic because of incapacity of the political elite to make strategic decisions it is also possible that politicians want to use it later as an argument in some important international political deals. She also points out to the few controversial sentences of the Haag Tribunal delivering very strict punishments for Serbian defendants while it not always was so strict in case of non Serbians. It has resulted in serious doubts in institutions under the wing of NATO and generally the Western states.
Definitely there are structures with a strong interest to keep the military monopoly within the borders. The secret services due to a lack of lustration after the revolution in 2000 kept their structure and position utilizing the political instability to grow out as a political factor out of the control of state administration. Their power is very well indicated by the murder of the Premier Zoran Đinđić , in which case even today, after 8 years since the assassination, we only know the executors. Some threads link secret service to Russia where few important families fled after the war but still try to influence a situation in Serbia, while on the other hand they are suspected to protect those tycoons who wield the power in Serbia. Most probably war criminals wanted by Haag are also linked to some secret services high officials. In those circles there is consensus about one thing for sure: to keep Serbia far from NATO and EU. One might ask a question whether the President Boris Tadić is also protecting them or just simply he is not powerful enough to eliminate those forces, having in mind the consequence of the determined Đinđić’s policy. In any case it is obviously impossible to declare a concrete strategy about the defense strategy of the country. Playing by the nation wish, the distant approach towards NATO offers the similar instrument to Belgrade as it was the Non-aligned policy for forefathers. Tito was coruscating in the role of the head of Non-aligned Movement, while Milošević even had a braveness to lead a war against NATO.
From the other side Russia makes it unequivocal that Serbia shouldn’t become a member state of NATO. Russia has a big influence on Serbian internal policy thanks to strong support for Kosovo policy and through the control of Serbian energetic sector
Notwithstanding one of the most rational reasons could be also the problem of the restructuring the Serbian military industry, as traditionally most of the target markets are not NATO member states. In this case Serbia should implement NATO standards and to invest a lot to this sector. Due to the Serbian economical situation Serbia is not capable even to utilize its capacities on less developed markets. Unfortunately exactly the economical indicators disclose the latitude of Serbian situation. As long as Russia and China will not ensure similar benefits like the Western Alliance their attractiveness is just a pseudo – dilemma.
Professor Várady stresses that the EU doesn’t put NATO integration issue in the foreground in the context of Serbia’s accession process. He sees EU's understanding of Serbia’s relation to the NATO. But Serbia’s reserved approach towards the North-Atlantic Organization could be later considered as an obstacle, already in a much more advanced phase of the EU integration.

EU integration

While the NATO issue raises many doubts and questions, the European integration issue is more defined. Literally we can state it is even answered as Serbia has just delivered the responses to the Questionnaire to European Commission. During the incumbent government two significant changes happened. The first fact is the reconciliation between the President Boris Tadić led Democratic Party and the Serbian Socialist Party while the second one is establishing the Serbian Progress Party (SNS) by Tomislav Nikolić (the former Radical Party vice-president) - unambiguously committing to EU-oriented policy. By this step he has eliminated the extreme right wing from the political mainstream. Unfortunately these happenings have turned the country into a general corruption without well functioning control mechanisms. As the opposition is weak and divided there is no authentic and constructive critic. This situation is perfect for tycoons that try to keep their monopolies by destroying basic institutions of a transparent and democratic society. In this environment the Democratic Party took over the control over the most appreciable media like the National Television, NIN and Politika. Except of few tabloids financed by some of tycoons and secret services the opinion shaping media are now almost totally in hands of the government - with a clear pro-EU tone. It is important factor if we light out the fact that the same above mentioned organs have also provided “media support” to Premier Đinđić’s assassination. The biggest problem is after all the economical situation. In this phase of the integration the EU is most interested in the status and independence of regulatory bodies and naturally in the economical affairs. Due to the symbiosis of quasi-legal local businessmen and political elite, it generates a systemic corruption with a vertical projection to the whole society. Notwithstanding Professor Várady doesn’t consider Serbian internal policy so problematic and also has some doubts about statistics measuring the corruption level. According to his opinion now the EU has to concentrate on recovering from financial crisis and on working out a consensus over further enlargement. It is already sure that Croatia will join the Union, most probably in 2013, but the rest of the Western-Balkan states are still far from EU standards. Unofficially there are even some ideas to form a “waiting room” - similar solution like the alliance of North African states with such difference that Western - Balkan countries would have a secured future membership in EU. This conception would anticipate a long lasting commercial union of the potential Balkan candidate countries including Turkey as well. The only question is how the segmented Western Balkan region will cope with the better and better performing Turkish economy. Turkey recently plays serious role in the stabilization of the Balkan region, taking many diplomatic initiatives like for example pushing Serbian government to cut its support for the radical right politicians in Republika Srpska. Next to diplomatic activities we can soon expect the first Turkish investments in infrastructural projects in Serbia, while time to time we can hear about alleged intentions of Turkish Airlines to take over some of the regional air carriers. According to the Commercial Attache of the Turkish Embassy since the Free Trade Agreement between Turkey and Serbia have came into force in September last year, Turkey doubled its export to Serbia, while Serbia still couldn’t reach similar results. However Professor Várady thinks that this is unrealistic to talk about Turkish domination in the region as the whole region has common experience with Turkish few hundred years presence and today even money cannot destroy walls of distrust. Despite the fact that he doesn’t see Serbia within EU borders in upcoming years, he is that EU is determined to invite the Balkan countries in. It is now time for the EU to revise its experiences with enlargements during last decades. Institutional reforms are required not only in candidate countries but they are also a challenge for the EU institutions. New rules have to be introduced in order to achieve a more effective organization within the Union of over 30 states.
Romania and Bulgaria had huge unresolved economical and institutional problems before accessing EU while among current new comers there are open border questions and national tensions. Will the EU be ever powerful enough to unset these threats inside EU, or we will have a chance to observe a desert encircled by EU borders however out of the Paradise? Most probably one day the whole region will be united, the only question is WHEN?



Kornél Nagy,
Belgrade – Gdansk

07.03.2011